jipkin’s PredictIt Preview: Week of 6/25/2018

Welcome to an experimental bit of content.  My goal with this weekly prospectus is to give newer (and maybe experienced) traders a flavor for what to expect in the markets active this week.  In so doing, perhaps a few of you readers out there might decide to explore some markets you might have avoided in the past.

Disclaimer: In the interest of not breaking any laws, I feel I should disclose that I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I will discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased by my own monetary incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie in this I certainly will knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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It’s the last week of June and the last week to make sure you hit that monthly income target.  Let’s have a look at what’s in store…

The Tweet Streets

(Unsure how to play tweet markets?  Check out my two-part guide here and here.)

RDT – Well this one is all but over.  It needs runner-runner-runner silent or two-tweet mornings probably to flip.  A silent Monday morning might induce a panic to sub-90s but even then it’s gonna be tough.  Also, the dude is probably just gonna tweet.

PT, WHT – Really interesting spots for both of these markets to be honest.  The week ahead for official WH events (as I know it) seems relatively light – or at least relatively devoid of stuff that the market would normally expect to be heavy.

Still, there’s plenty of leftover material from the roundtables last week for WHT to re-heat and I do expect (as does the market) that we’ll continue to see a drip-drip-drip of immigration-related stuff.  For PT, the big question mark is if Scavino keeps hitting up RDTs at the rate he was the end of last week and if he starts picking up the VPTs with some consistency again. If the latter, I expect him to hit B90 easily.

Overall: swing potential is high in WHT, low to moderate in PT.

VPT – A great spot for this market.  Some of the market is blind to what the week will bring, some of the market knows but is skeptical, some knows and is bullish.  A classic test of expectations vs reality, ignorance vs knowledge. A shame the volume is low in there at the moment, but I expect that will change early on this week.

Polling World

(Unsure about how to play polling markets?  Check out my two part guide here and here).

The last week of June means we have five markets to preview:

538 TA – Closing Monday at midnight, this market is fairly loose at the moment (and low volume as usual).  The big question here (and for the other approval markets this week) is what Monday’s Gallup decides to do.  Everyone expects Gal to give back a few of the points it got during last week’s record. But how many? Other than Rasmussen and Gal, there are a couple daily YGs that might matter, maybe a late-breaking Morning Consult, and you never know when a random iShittizen will show up on 538.  This market will certainly move a bit – I question whether it will be a truly epic day though.

RCP TA – How much will Gal be down?  How much will Ras be up by the end of the week?  Assuming Harvard-Harris comes, will it make an impact?  Whither Marist these days? I don’t see drops playing a huge role here given that Monmouth is relatively high but you never know.

RCP TA Monthly – AKA the “can his approval hit 44% by Saturday?” market.  The path seems challenging: avoid taking too much damage from Gal, counteract that damage and then some with a rise in Ras, dodge anything catastrophic from YouGov and Ipsos, and get a slightly higher than expected Harvard Harris.  Oh and definitely let’s hope Monmouth doesn’t drop.

538 Ballot – An intriguing spot for sure given the pricing.  I don’t see too much surprising hitting this market but one can always dream.  A typical week of waiting to see what the Tuesday and Wednesday fairies bring in terms of Reuters, Morning Consult, YouGov, and Rasmussen.  My guess is everything just washes up against one another and we stay in B6.0% but the two shoulder brackets certainly have their shot as well.  In particular I wouldn’t be surprised if B5.0% crosses 50c at some point or the other.

Ras – Really good market this week!  The monday number will be critical of course, but this one has a good shot at being alive til the end.

 

Election Markets – June 26 Primary

Click here to see all the election markets active on Tuesday.

As is usually the case with me I’ve done very little research at all on any of these races.  I expect Grimm vs Donovan to be the marquis event of the evening with the Maryland D-Gov primary also bringing in some volume.  There do appear to be several live markets Tuesday though, and I expect the savvy trader will be able to find several profitable spots throughout the evening (SC-02 is kind of catching my eye).

As always, do your own research on ballotpedia etc before election night so you at least have a sense of what the basic dynamics are.  Get the NYT ready, get Vox/DDHQ ready, get the local county results ready (where applicable) and enjoy the trading.

Other markets

Well the Mexican election is coming up soon, though that market is basically done (we’ll see if we get an MoV or something).

Strzok testify is probably due for a swing or two this week (this market spiked to 60c on news that he was being subpoena’d, crashed to 25c when those traders realized he was just being called in for a private deposition, and has spiked again near 60c when Goodlatte said in an interview Sunday that they would call on Strzok to testify publicly shortly).  Let’s see what gets announced after his Wednesday deposition.

All the June 30 markets are closing, so go hoover up your pennies if that’s something you’re into.  Pruitt and RodRo have the most to collect if you’re confident they’ll last (they almost certainly last, but you never know yadda yadda).

There are no fun markets for Congress this week, though we may get one for whether or not Republicans in the House pass an immigration bill, so keep your eyes peeled for that.

Finally it looks like the Supreme Court decision on public sector unions is probably going to hit this week, so have a gamble over here if you like.

 

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