jipkin’s PredictIt Preview: Week of 7/16/2018

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I will discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.


 

The week that was

I hope everyone enjoyed their post-SCOTUS week!  While RDT was a bit of a snooze, WHT, PT, and VPT all delivered fantastic action.  Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a PT market where four out of seven brackets hit 40c at some point or another.  And that flip in VPT!  Sublime:VPTflip.png

(A bracket that hit 1c on Thursday ends up taking the cake!)

Even the good ol’ RCP polling market saw a flip with a surprise Thursday Fox.

Congrats to all the winners this week – and hopefully those of you new traders who made a few bucks on SCOTUS got a chance to see what crazy things can and do happen on PredictIt on a weekly basis!

The week ahead

No major events (known!) and no elections this week, so it’s back to basics in tweets and polls, and maybe a chance to do some research on the upcoming midterms as we enter the back half of July.  Here’s what I’m watching:

Tweets

(New to tweet markets?  Have a read of my guide here: Part 1 | Part 2).

RDT – Is Scotland’s Turnberry the Mar-A-Lago of Europe?  A place to kick back, fire up the telly, and tweet til your fingers go numb?  Or does he go quiet ahead of his Putin powwow?  My guess is that the man tweets.  There’s a lot to tweet about that he hasn’t touched on and he’s been tweeting liberally on this foreign trip (and all summer, with the exception of the pre-SCOTUS drought) anyway.  Is it enough to make B80 good?  That I can’t tell you.

WHT, PT – Weird spot for both of these.  On the one hand, fairly liberal retweets recently of RDT by Mr. Scavino on PT.  On the other hand, how active is WHT going to be this weekend?  For the Putin summit?  What’ll these accounts be up to upon the return to the states?  There are some potentially juicy swings here, but it’s far too soon to know in which direction.

VPT Well with a spot of research you ought to be able to figure out what he’s up to.  And it should be reasonably tweetsy.  Do I think it’s a clear B7 week?  Well given that he just spat out an absolutely dead Thursday I don’t think the number of events really does mean anything just yet.  (As I write this I’m listening to his current Chicagoland AFP where it seems things are getting a little feisty?  Wonder if that continues.)

Polls

(New to polling markets?  Have a read of my guide here: Part 1 | Part 2).

Quinn, CNN, CBS, NBC/WSJ are all live possibilities I would imagine this week (polling reax to Kavanaugh).  How nice would it be if we get a Monday Approval and Wednesday Ballot from CNN?  Otherwise we’re dealing with the normal bit of daily YGs, Gal, Ras, and Reut for 538 TA; Reut, YG, MC, and Ras for 538 Ballot; and basically everything for next week’s weekly RCP.

This is also the point in the month that you’re going to want to start paying close attention to the monthly RCP market, as polls we get now have a reasonable chance (though no guaranteed shot) of remaining on the list on 7/31.

Worth researching

SCOTUS Markets – There’s a lot of volume and interest here!  My sense is that the markets have it more or less right (with Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, Collins etc. looking to get to YES on Kavanaugh).  Democrats are taking several different lines of attack on Kav – healthcare, abortion rights, Mueller and presidential power, etc.  The only thing that sincerely flips any of these folks is some kind of revelation on healthcare, and even then it would have to coincide with a political uproar.  We shall see.  Rand might end up being the meme-iest market because if I know Rand, he’s going to do something amazingly obstinate at some point and threaten to blow up everything before backing down for no gain.

May we get a new UK PM?  The media is hyping up the drama overseas right now (which happens to have coincided with Trump’s visit and his freely offered opinions on Boris Johnson), yet I don’t think we have any indication of a serious move being made to challenge May.  But as I wrote before, this is still not one I’ve closely watched, and I think for those of you that are interested in a mid-priced and potentially swing-y market this is one to watch.  And don’t forget about its new cousin: who will be the next Conservative party leader?

Georgia on my mind – The primary run-offs are coming up July 24th and if you’re looking to place a bet based on fundamentals and so forth, now is the time to get your money in: D-primary GA-07, D-primary GA-06, and R-Gov primary.

Hottest year ever?  This one doesn’t resolve for a while, but it’s new this week and I think the Predictor that bothers to do a little bit googling may find themselves rewarded here.

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