Georgia Run-Off Preview

Okay unlike this week’s snoozer in Alabama (as I feared, Roby won so easily she outran the brackets PI chose for MoV), we’ve got a couple very interesting races coming up in Georgia next Tuesday, July 24!  Let’s take a closer look.

Links

GA R-Gov primary run-off

GA R-Gov primary run-off MoV

GA R-Lt. Gov primary run-off

GA-06 D primary run-off

GA-07 D primary run-off

Cagle vs. Kemp – Is it over already for the R-Gov runoff?

Cagle won round one.  Kemp made some absurdly crazy ads.  Cagle got caught on tape complaining about how winning the race was about “who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest”.  Kemp pounced.  Kemp took a small polling leadTrump endorses Kemp (did Trump see internal polling?).   Today, a public poll finds Kemp with a huge lead (55-37, yikes).

If this REALLY is over, let’s hope we at least get an MoV with reasonable brackets [UPDATE: we did].  If not, there will be some serious money to be made election night.  Market will bite hard on the first early votes that are reported (there are ~100k in as of Monday statewide, but those include both parties), but be aware many of those were made pre-endorsement (if you think that matters).  Other than that, pay attention to which counties are reporting first – if Kemp is leading in the rurals that Cagle won round one, it’s probably over (while Atlanta has a lot of the vote, it’s a smaller fraction of the statewide total than, say, in a Democratic primary).

Finally, pay attention to what the overall Governor market does – it’s priced expecting a Kemp win right now I believe.

How are we still gambling on GA-06?

From the state that brought you “vote your Ossoff” it’s time for yet another contest for the votes of the Atlanta suburbanites.  This time, it’s Lucy McBath (36.27% round one) trying to keep Kevin Abel (30.54% round one) at bay and claim the right to challenge Karen Handel in November.  With little polling, there’s not much to go on here besides your own take on the candidates (see Ballotpedia for an overview) and how they performed round one.

My 2c, having not done anything other than give this race a cursory look, is that it’s interesting that McBath took every county (and so many of the precincts therein).  And it’s also interesting that the newscaster that finished third is another white guy like Abel.  So who knows?  Seems like a race where, if it is tight, having a good handle on how precincts are changing from round one to runoff will give the numerically-inclined trader an edge.  Maybe no greater an edge than basic county analysis but it’s worth pointing out that we do have this data this time (via the Georgia SOS).

A sleeper upset possible in GA-07?

The market seems to love Bourdeaux (27.28% round one), but Kim (25.98%) did take one of the two counties here (barely).  Far be it from me to question the wisdom of the crowds but I’ll be watching this one to see if it actually crumbles the way they think.  Would be fun to see what an early vote dump favoring Kim does…

Does anyone care about the Lt. Gov race?

Unless it’s a big upset, I sure don’t.

Electoral returns dynamics

Georgia has early voting – and these will be the first reported, typically in a huge dump by each county.  It’s also home to Fulton and DeKalb, two Atlanta-area counties known for taking forever to count their votes.  If we have close races on election night, or good MoV opportunities, this will be a great opportunity for those who like to do the election night math (and election night markets can do some amazingly stupid things give how few traders actually put that work in).

One final note – if things go late in GA-06/07, watch for the official results site to have new results the fastest.

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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