Florida (polls close 7/8pm eastern)
FL R-Gov Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
FL D-Gov Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS) – MoV
FL House D Primaries (5, 7, 9, 18, 27) (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
FL House R Primaries (6, 27) (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
The big story for these primaries is the governor’s race in Florida. The Trump-endorsed DeSantis has dominated the market for some time, but a few recent polls have shown that Putnam is either reasonably close or even leading. This is easily my pick for most likely to flip (though of course that’s no guarantee – and Trump will be tweeting out his endorsement a few more times before election day). Meanwhile, things on the Democratic side seem to favor Graham overall, though you never really know how four-way races are going to break in the end and she is by no means in a dominant position. As for the House races – I’ll let you wade into those at your leisure. Nothing struck me as immediately likely to flip, but then again there’s so many surely at least one will, right?
Florida has substantial early-voting. The data-oriented trader would do well to have a gander at the statistics of ballots cast by mail and in-person and where from and so on.
Other previews: MCIMaps, 538, NYT, Vox.
Oklahoma (polls close 8pm eastern)
OK R-Gov Primary Run-off (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
Remember this race from back in June? The three-way contest is now down to two, with Stitt the favorite (despite Cornett winning Round 1). This one might be fun on election night, as both have quite distinct geographic bases: Stitt in Tulsa, Cornett in Oklahoma City (see round one results here). Of course, it could also be a blowout.
Arizona (polls close 10pm eastern)
AZ R-Sen Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS) – MoV
AZ House D Primaries (2,7) (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
Not a whole lot to say here! McSally should win. Sinema should crush. Maybe the sleeper watch is AZ-2, where Heinz might upset Kirkpatrick?
Like Florida, Arizona has quite a bit of early voting. And there’s a website that lets you peruse it in quite some detail, if you’d like.
Other previews: 538, NYT, Vox.
Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein. You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives. While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.
Predicting Politics 