jipkin’s PredictIt Preview: Week of 9/24/2018

Okay, so uh the last week of September is going to be a lot more insane than I was thinking…

Kavanaugh

Will Dr. Blasey testify?  Will Kavanaugh testify? How soon after will the committee vote?  Will Kavanaugh be confirmed by the end of September?  What about at all?  How many votes will he get now?  Will Ed Whelan find the right floor plans to bust this thing wide open?  And then there’s all the individual vote markets…. my goodness what a feast.  High volume, breaking news markets are what PredictIt is made for outside of elections.

Things are fluid, but here’s my take as of Friday afternoon:

  • Both will testify publicly, Kavanaugh probably takes on some water as a result (but it all comes down to the moment).  If he’s going to sink, he sinks shortly thereafter.  The committee vote will be scheduled swiftly after – but could get postponed if things don’t look good in the hearing or if Collins/Murk signal they are out.  September confirmation is virtually out of the picture unless testimony talks completely break down.  October and eventual confirmation?  Feels like mayyyyyybe Manchin comes over from the Dems but otherwise I’d say if he’s getting confirmed it’s 51 or 50.  Not sure about Donnelly tbh, so I suppose 53 is still alive.
  • But really, Dr. Blasey testifying believably as to her experience probably does irreparable damage to Kavanaugh.  We’ll see how emotionally invested Trump becomes (his statements about Kavanaugh are eerily reminiscent of how he handled the Ronny Jackson episode), but I can see a sudden withdrawal by late next week or over the weekend in the cards.  After that it’s off to the races in who gets nominated next, and hopefully PI gives us that market quickly.

And here’s my take as of Saturday morning, post-ultimatum and extension:

  • OMG is she going to testify or not??  It seems she’s genuinely torn and stressed.  I think she comes around to it in the end but today is the day we find out.  Good luck out there.

Rosenstein

Well that was a fun little boomlet.  I doubt Rosenstein is canned by the end of the week – I mean if Hannity, Lindsey Graham, and Matt Gaetz are all out there pumping the brakes then there’s no way.  He may still be gone at a later time, of course.  And I really doubt he’s getting impeached, especially if Rs lose the House.

Tweets

RDT – So it’s never going to be B1 ever again, eh?  A fun start to this week with B1 hitting 60 on the opening day only to get brutalized by a few retweet storms two days later.  And of course B7 hit the 40s because why not?  All brackets remain in play as we start this quiet Saturday morning – B1 needs him to clam up for the weekend and for the UN trip to keep him occupied.  B7 needs him to go hard on retweets at some point or another (and I’m not really sure whether his recent little bursts were him or Scavino).  And the rest need some combination.  Kavanaugh, Rosenstein, trade and China, the U.N. (for staff tweets, but also for keeping him occupied), a few nights in Trump Tower (last year he tweeted a lot there).  Should be a fun four days!

PT/WHT – All U.N. this week, with a potential side helping of Kavanaugh, should Dr. Blasey choose not to testify and the vote move forward.

VPT – He has a speech this Saturday to the Value Voters Summit and after that I don’t know.  My sense is he’ll be laying low on Kavanaugh until/unless it’s time for the vote.  Otherwise, his energy has been pretty decent lately so even a blank day is going to yield 5 or so.

Polls

We got an NYT Live Polling market!  And the volume is kind of dead, sadly.  Only smart money went there and the smart money knows how quickly those polls can change.  Might have needed wider brackets?  Anyway – it’s still ongoing with the last set of respondents in TX-32 probably in today or tomorrow (they run til 500 respondents).

Aside from that it’s a pretty standard-looking end-of-month week out there.  Harvard-Harris and Fox are live; early IBD is live; Quinn is quite possibly live but also might do more state polling.  And of course, NBC/WSJ should probably have their TA and ballot numbers out tomorrow morning.

Links to the markets: 538 TA, 538 Ballot, RCP TA, RCP end-of-month TA

We also have a new polling market on Rasmussen ballot which is literally taking a shot in the dark so if you’re into that, enjoy lol.

Congress Stuff

All eyes will be on Kavanaugh, but we have markets on whether or not the government will be shut down (probably not, but someone seems to think it’s worth maxing at 20c), as well as one on whether or not the House passes H.R. 6760 next week (which the market likes, but which I have no idea about).  It’s priced like there’s money to be made either way though, so definitely something to keep an eye on.

 

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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