Ok so who is going to win this thing?

Oh, hey there.  Been a spell.

Last we talked, it was just before the June debates.  Before Kamala’s brief rise and fall, before Warren hit 54c only to fall all the way back to the low 20s, before Mayor Pete rebounded, before Hillary Clinton somehow managed to hit 14c, before El Bloombito managed to do the same thing.

When I envisioned how the summer and fall would play out, I figured by November things would be a bit more sorted out than June.  Nope!  So here we are with just over two months til Iowa and not much more of a clue than before any of the debates happened.

Who is going to win?  No clue!  But let’s take a trip through the market and at least organize some thoughts:

Joe Biden – 23c

Hey, at least the (national) polling leader is leading the market for once.  And this might blow your mind, but Joe can actually win.  If his polling weren’t so garbage in IA/NH, I’d say he’s the prohibitive favorite.  But his polling there is poor.  And if he comes in fourth or something in IA… I don’t know.  If he wins after that, it won’t be a pretty win.  Joe top two in Iowa and he’s the favorite.  Probably?  Maybe?

He’s underpriced, but that’s never not been true.

Elizabeth Warren – 22c

Remember when the giddy extremely online lefties on PredictIt took her to 54c in September when she had only just managed to get to a tie in national polling with Joe?  Oops!  (Yes, you should have sold then, if you were a YES holder).

Liz Warren is arguably running the best campaign (in terms of theme, organization, etc. – Bernie and Pete are both up there as well).  She does need an early win – if she’s third in IA to Pete and Bernie (or, worse, Pete and Joe) it’s not going to go well from then on.  If she’s one of four candidates with substantial delegates leaving super Tuesday, she wants to be in the top two.  If not, probably RIP.

She’s underpriced.

Mayor Pete – 20c

There’s at least half a path for him to win.  Yes, it seems black voters won’t vote for him.  But what if I told you that in a four-way delegate split, that might not necessarily matter at a contested convention?  (That’s where Pete is winning if he’s winning, by the way).

One fun fact about Pete is that he takes more from Liz than he does from Joe, since they share appeal among white college-educateds (who like that they’re both smart) despite them staking out different ideological positions.  Adam Jentleson and the Warren camp have been desperately shitting on him for about three months now without making a substantial dent.

He’s overpriced, probably.  Not by a terrible amount.

Bernie Sanders – 15c

Yeah I mean sure, ok.  He’s not running a bad campaign.  I don’t really think he wins because I think he’s going to come out of the first four states third or fourth in delegates, not improve much on Super Tuesday, and be pressured by the Warren camp to drop and endorse her shortly thereafter.  He won’t do that, of course, and will trudge on until April clinging to the dream of a convention win (ain’t happening).  Prove me wrong, Bernie!

He’s fairly priced.

Mike Bloomberg – 13c

lol no.  He just “officially” announced today, I suppose, and his price is overinflated as a result.  He’s worth 2c at most, and that’s being generous about the possibility that maybe spending $30M a week can buy you some support.  Maybe the plan is just to bribe all the delegates at the convention?  $10M a pop and he’d be able to spend another $1B on the general election and still have $50B left over to live off post-presidency.

He’s overpriced.

Andrew Yang – 7c

Nope!  Sorry, folks.  He’s run a pretty great campaign but yeah it ain’t going to happen.  He drops after Super Tuesday.

He’s overpriced.

Hillary Clinton – 7c

She hit 14c!  If you owned her YES, that’s when you should have sold!

To be fair to the pumpers, she did at least entertain the idea.  It was closer than it should have been.  But we’re now officially in “maybe she’ll emerge as a savior at the convention” territory, which, if you think about for a few seconds, you’ll realize is hilariously dumb.  PROVE ME WRONG, HILLDAWG.  DO IT.  I DARE YOU.

She’s overpriced.

Kamala Harris – 4c

She missed her moment, it seems.  I honestly thought she would win after that first debate.  However, it turns out that I’m very dumb.  She was running in the liberal lane ideologically when she should have just occupied the space Pete has been staking out the whole time.  Oh well!  Don’t let your family run your campaign!

She’s just a touch overpriced.

Amy Klobuchar – 3c

She’s my pick for a December bubble.  She’s already creeping up in IA and has a real shot at hitting double digits there, particularly if Pete falters a bit.  Does she win the race?  Well, if (and only if) she wins IA she will have a chance, since MN ought to award her enough delegates to take to the convention, where I actually think she might be reasonably formidable in the second and third ballots.

She’s fairly priced, but please buy my shares for sale at 4c.

Tulsi Gabbard – 3c

Tulsi Gabbard will not be the next Democratic nominee for President of the United States.  There are two kinds of people betting on Tulsi: right-leaning people who think she has a chance (they are dumb) and sharps taking advantage of these people to flip shares.

She’s overpriced (worth 0c).

Deval Patrick – 1c

Already forgot this guy was running and I don’t know if it’s even been a week.  Maybe it’s been two weeks?  Who cares.

He’s fairly priced.

Cory Booker – 1c

Cory, like Kamala, should have run more moderately to start off with.  He’s probably worth more than a penny, and yet I’m literally trying to sell him at a penny right now because like what is the path here after he wins 0 delegates in IA, 0 in NH, 0 in NV, and 0 in SC?  I guess he’s running to maintain some VP equity (though the one candidate who I think would have picked him, Kirsten Gillibrand, is long gone at this point).

He’s a bit underpriced I suppose.

Tom Steyer – 1c

Come on now.

Julian Castro – 1c

Literally running to be Elizabeth Warren’s VP and nothing else.

Oh god John Delaney et al. are still running

Folks!  Your lives!  What are you doing with them??  I take that back for Marianne Williamson, actually.  At least she can sell some books.  Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, and Sestak are just battling their own vanities.

Pour one out

For Kirsten, Beto, all the other white dudes, and especially Mayor Wayne.

To sum up

Buy Joe and Liz, I guess?  I don’t know.  (Can’t you tell?)  Flipping shares as the wind changes directions is at least profitable (and so long as you can tell which way it’s about to blow).  I’m up to just shy of $6k profit in the market (up from $1.9k back before the first debate) so there’s that brag out of the way.  Should be more!  (It should always be more).

2020DNOM nov 19 realized profit.png

I’m also just shy of 1M shares sold in that market (neat), so not exactly the most efficient play style, but reasonably profitable.  If you’d like to copy or mock my plays, here’s my full trade history for this market (yes, you can use this to figure out my current position if you’d like).

 

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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