Welp, it’s today!
Last week, I promised one final update on 538 vs PI, along with my own prices. Here they are:
As you can see, I come down closer to 538 than PI. I think PI is simply showing far too little respect for uncertainty in both polling and the inherently wonky nature of the caucuses themselves. [That said, you’ll note I’ve conveniently priced myself between the two (just how it worked out, I promise) so I’m guaranteed to beat either 538 or PI.]
In addition to accuracy measures, one of the things I’ll be doing with these predictions is comparing how various betting strategies using them work out. More on this in the aftermath, but basically I’ll be comparing using my numbers or 538’s to bet on PI, simply betting the favorite, always betting the underdog, going full degenerate, etc. These will all be “buy and hold” strategies based on getting in at the last moment, and I’ll compare their results to my own actual play (decidedly NOT buy-and-hold).
Speaking of which, what is my betting strategy? Well, as you’ve learned or will learn reading this blog, I’m relatively bad at predicting the future. But I’m relatively good at reacting to the present. So my strategy revolves around watching the results and making moves as I feel appropriate. Some elections flip-flop around (the fun ones), some break hard early and never look back, etc. Here’s what I’ll be looking for:
–Who is winning in early rural county precincts? This is where a Pete/Amy surprise would show up first – and a Joe loss.
–Is Bernie winning the urban counties as expected, or is Warren close or leading? This is where a potential Warren upset would start to brew.
–Who is winning the satellite caucuses? If it’s Joe by a mile and he’s in a tight race with Bernie for the precinct caucuses… then it’s Joe’s night.
–How much is Bernie crushing the first alignment? This is the “popular vote” and I think a valuable source of information on how much enthusiasm Bernie can really inspire from his supporters this cycle.
–When will PredictIt crash? Be forewarned – the instant a big flip starts to happen (let’s say it looks like Joe is going to win), everyone will try to trade all at once not only in the Iowa market, but in 50-odd markets site-wide. The website has never survived this in the past, and therefore I have to be pessimistic we’re fully operational throughout the duration tonight. This is also why I plan to be holding virtually no sizable positions from 8:00pm eastern on in any of the live contracts.
–Will there be money in the MoV market? This is usually where the big money on election nights comes from. There are some other potential sources tonight too – if Joe wins IA for instance, Bloomberg will die site-wide (and Bloomberg moons if Joe is a weak fourth).