Beware the Nevada Market

Since I’ve committed myself to pricing out each state this primary season, I have about six days left to figure out what I think is going to happen in Nevada.  And yet I do not know what is going to happen in Nevada.  And I particularly do not think the market fully understands itself either.  Here are some things that make me uneasy:

No polls

We’ve had, like, one.  I don’t know how many more we’ll get or how high-quality they’ll be.  The state is apparently quite expensive to poll, and with South Carolina and Super Tuesday around the corner, some pollsters may be keeping their powder dry.  The overall situation leaves the political bettor trying to impute Nevada trends from national polls or other random crappy state polls and it just feels thin.

There’s a debate

Even if we had polls, there’s a debate three days ahead of time.  A ton of New Hampshire voters decided late, and broke for Amy and Pete after the debate.  I’m not sure there’s a similar dynamic about to play out in Nevada, but I’m not really sure there won’t be either.  And I am really skeptical we’ll get a last minute poll measuring any such debate movement (as we did for New Hampshire).

Bernie v Joe?

I was sold on a Bernie v Joe fight in Iowa and didn’t really get one.  Is this the time?  Or is Pete going to out-organize and out-consolidate the rural white vote, resulting in Bernie coasting due to a moderate split?  Does Bernie win the Hispanic vote and, if so, by how much?  Does Warren play spoiler at all in any precincts, or does she miss threshold (to Bernie’s benefit)?

It’s a caucus

They’re using a Google Forms system this time!  Which should be better, except that maybe it won’t be because some people don’t know how to use an iPad.  That said,  I’m skeptical we get another true debacle but obviously the possibility cannot be foreclosed on.  Remember precinct leaders, for tiebreaks we don’t flip coins, we draw cards!

So Bernie’s worth 80c then?

I cannot imagine paying 80c for anyone to win six days out given the uncertainty at play here.  That said, someone has to do it, and I can’t really argue that Bernie isn’t the favorite.  Although, when you really think about it, what is winning?  How do we even define a win?  Who won Iowa again?  Which leads me to my final point:

Remember the first rule of PredictIt

Read the rules, kids.

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