SCOTUS Update: 36 hours to go!

Welcome to the penultimate day of the SCOTUS market my friends.  It’s Sunday, roughly 9AM as I write, and we’ve got 36 hours of who knows what’s going to happen left for us in the SCOTUS market (and its lesser-appreciated sidekick).

The Barrett Pump

There was a time Thursday and Friday when it was starting to feel like things were just gonna slowly drift to $1 for Kavanaugh.  CNBC reported Trump had settled on him, while other outlets confirmed it was down to Kavanaugh or Kethledge.  By late Friday night, he hit 63c.

Then Saturday saw one of the most concentrated infusions/pumps of dumb money on Barrett I think I’ve ever witnessed.  From a low of 18c overnight Friday she was pumped up to a high near 42c.  On what?  Drudge report ran a top-of-the-site piece re-hashing some Orrin Hatch op-ed that had run 12 hours earlier (but I guess the market had forgotten about?).

Still, Kav retained much of his value, sitting in the mid-40s most of the day.  And what a slow slow day it was news-wise.  Literally 0 relevant tweets from morning until 8:30pm…

When the News Finally Comes

…And then Maggie and JMart hit us with their Saturday piece, with the news that McTurtle is pumping Kethledge and Hardiman as the most confirmable.  More importantly, they reported that Trump was still undecided, switching between names every few hours.  Trump was bringing up Kethledge the least they said, is still worried about Kav being a Bushie, and is intrigued by the idea of nominating a woman.  And still talking Hardiman.

Hardiman was the biggest beneficiary of that article (from 6c to 13c), but the real movement didn’t come until a Time Magazine piece dropped from the lesser-known Phil Elliott.  He alleged that Kavanaugh was fading (and corroborated earlier reports from NYT that McGahn hasn’t been pumping him as hard), and further reported that Trump was referring to Kethledge as “Gorsuch 2.0”.

Now THIS was a real market-mover.  Kethledge popped from mid 20s to high 40s, Kav died to mid-20s, Barrett died to mid-20s, Hardiman fell back from headier upper teens to very low teens.

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday…

That’s just two articles worth of 15c swings all over the board.  It’s Sunday.  We’re going to get Sunday shows.  We’re going to get multiple tweets.  We’re going to get leaks.  Some of it is going to conflict.  Trump, ostensibly, is making the actual decision today.  Or will he?  Will he change his mind after if he does?

Enjoy the trading fam…

Elsewhere on PI:

Trump testify takes another beating – Rudy et al. continue their confrontational approach.

Whither the tweets? Trump is quiet-ish.  WHT is uncharacteristically silent for a Saturday.  Pence silent.  The calm before the SCOTUS storm?

What’s up with Theresa May? I take it she’s facing some conservative pressure on immigration, but I haven’t looked into it further.

See my preview (written Thursday) for what to expect from the upcoming week.

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