Well folks with two out of four tweet markets prematurely dead, it’s time to find somewhere else to spend your money this week. Journey with me down south to the land of Corkback Mountain for a quick overview of the Tennessee primaries happening this Thursday, August 2.
Links
- NYT / Vox/DDHQ / Secretary of State (links will be added as they become available)
- Ballotpedia
- NYT / Vox/DDHQ / Secretary of State (links will be added as they become available)
- Ballotpedia
- NYT / Vox/DDHQ / Secretary of State (links will be added as they become available)
- Ballotpedia
Preview
The main event is almost certainly the gubernatorial primary here, though TN-02 may yield some decent action as well (despite missing several candidates including the viable Ashley Nickloes in the market). TN-08 is likely all but decided in favor of Kustoff, with Trump’s endorsement the icing on the cake.
Diane Black should be the slight favorite in the gubernatorial contest but the polling is sparse, low-quality, and all over the place to boot. She does have Pence’s endorsement going for her so that’s gotta be worth something slightly above nothing. If this primary goes according to all others like it, her 6th Congressional District extending from the Nashville exurbs to the Kentucky border (and east to the Cumberland mountains) should vote heavily for her. Sumner and Wilson are her big counties, with Wilson already putting up some respectable numbers in the EV. Lee and Boyd don’t have obvious geographic bases that I see.
Another PI trader, theburgermanofoz, has his own analysis of this race if you’d like a different, yet similar take: https://burgerresearchdaily.weebly.com/home/tennessee-primaries-some-competitive-some-already-over .
Bonus
Aside from TN, there’s action in the Podesta charges market on a report that an investigation into Tony has been referred by Mueller to SDNY; there’s a new poll showing Kristi Noem actually in danger of losing in SD-Gov (which would ruin my “very likely” rating that she will be a governor come 2019); and, as always, the water is fine over in 538 ballot, where we await the grand finale tomorrow.
Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein. You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives. While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.
Predicting Politics 