jipkin’s PredictIt Preview – Week of 8/6/2018

After this relatively sleepy week (two our of four tweet markets dying early; TN markets going straightforwardly; one big flip in 538TA though), what will the first full week of August bring?

Donny is on vacation having a very busy week full of meetings and calls, Pence is ????, and Congress is out of town.  Still, we do have quite the election day to look forward to.  Let’s dive in to the week ahead:

Tweets

RDT – I really dislike Bedminster Donny.  At least at the WH and Mar-a-Lago the golf course is a drive away – requiring some planning to get to and imposing some structure on his day (and letting us know when he won’t be tweeting since we get the pool report).  At Bedminster no time of the day is safe.  And, aside from a jaunt out to Ohio tomorrow to pump Balderson ahead of the special election, he’s at Bedminster all week.  His mood is… still weird.  I’ll be curious to see if he does any last-minute endorsements ahead of Tuesday (or for the following Tuesday) but other than that be careful out there fam.  It’s a wide-open field of possibilities.

PT/WHT – Feels B1ish?  I mean I didn’t expect a fairly ordinary week in WHT to spike 100+ tweets last week, so maybe a vacation week can still get us out of B1?  Or maybe we just get the expected “economy good” “kavanaugh good” “ICE good” tweets.  Oh and did we ever figure out why we got two random “share your story” opioid tweets a couple weeks back?

VPT  My sense is he’ll also vacation, though I see no indication of it yet.  But why hang around DC if no one is in town, including the boss man?  Maybe Pence makes an unannounced trip from Hawaii to see our troops in Afghanistan?  Or maybe it’s just a quiet week at the Naval Observatory, idk.

Polls

IBD is due, McLaughlin is overdue, CNN and Fox are ripening nicely.  538 TA had a fantastic flip this week, and I expect a lot more caution as a result this week.  538 Ballot should be interesting though I’m a touch worried (writing this pre-Friday Reuters) that it could run off the B7 end with the right sequence of events.  RCP TA will finally get its drops (it better) and be playable again this week.

538.073018.png
This is why so many of us salty old vets always sell at 90c… (and then buy at 1-2c)

 

 

Balderson v O’Connor and the rest of the Tuesday action

The main event is surely the tightening OH-12 special election (Monmouth has it effectively tied).  But there are plenty of other fun races to consider.  Will Kobach get the nod in Kansas?  Can Whitmer hold off the Ocasio-Cortez-blessed El-Sayed?  (And there are implications in both Kansas and Michigan for the female governors market).  Will the favorites take MI-13 and MI-11?  I’ll have a somewhat more detailed preview up later, but for now check out the markets available here.

Decision soon on Mueller interview?

With a long Bedminster break to ruminate and jawbone with his co-conspirators allies, Trump is undoubtedly going to be thinking about the Mueller interview.  Which he wants to do!  Which his lawyers know is crazy because he’d perjure himself!  Rudy has thrown out another arbitrary deadline, and the Special Counsel is making some limited concessions.  I don’t know, just feels like something to keep your eye on this week.

SCOTUS after October 31?

Senate Judiciary Chairman Grassley requested some 900,000 documents from the National Archives on nominee Kavanaugh (many fewer than the number sought by Democrats).  Yesterday they responded, saying they could have 300,000 ready by September, but the remaining 600k would take until the end of October.  If Grassley decides to wait for all of them (or if they can’t be found via an alternate source, like the GWB library as the committee spokesman suggests), this blows up all the SCOTUS markets (and made for a fun little spike in the Rand Paul market yesterday).  Something to consider when placing your bets there.

PAUL.YEA.103118.png
Can you spot when the National Archives letter story first broke?  And when the committee spokesman responded?

Polling bits and bobs

We got a second poll showing Kate Brown tied with her pro-choice Republican challenger.  And a surprising poll showing Kristi Noem tied in SD-Gov with her Democratic opponent as well. (Still no markets for either of these).  Nonetheless, these polls and Black’s loss in her primary last night have roiled things a bit in the female governor’s market (my [updated] analysis from last week here, when things seemed so much simpler…).  Even Kay Ivey isn’t leading by as much as you might expect.

Beto is keeping things close-ish in TX, but I’m still a bit bearish on his final chances.  Can you imagine the Beto 2020 hysteria if wins?

For other random polls, I recommend bookmarking 538’s poll tracker here.

Good luck out there this week!

 


 

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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