Wow – what a night. Does it get any better than a super-tight down-to-the-wire election? How about two? Can we throw in a few flips elsewhere too? Well then, folks, welcome to the August 7 primaries. Oh and by the way –
We’re not done yet
(Results links here, if you need them: https://predictingpolitics.com/2018/08/04/august-7-special-election-and-primaries-preview/ )
Action continues! As I write this at 7:30am on Wednesay morning (after being up til 2am…), several markets are still unresolved:
OH-12: This is still almost certainly Balderson’s. There are something like 8k potentially unrecorded votes (when you consider outstanding absentees and provisionals), of which I reckon at least 4-5k get counted. In theory, these could drag the margin down under 0.5%, forcing an automatic recount (which Balderson still probably wins). Provisionals are not counted for 11 days (we will get absentees earlier) so this one will be live for a while.
OH-12 MoV: Similary, this can technically still pop into 1-2%, if the outstanding votes favor Balderson or if a recount happens and the recount favors him a bit more.
MI R-Sen MoV: With 4% of precincts remaining in James-favoring Wayne and Macomb, he could still bump himself back into the 10-15% bracket.
MI-13 D primary special election: There’s some kind of chicanery afoot here. I did not follow this on election night but from a groggy surmise of the market comments, it seems there might be a reporting error somewhere? Either that or Brenda Jones really did get more votes for this race than she got for the non-special race.
KS R-Gov primary: Last, but certainly not least, this race has come down to the final few updates, depending (as I write) on the last 200 or so precincts in the achingly-slow counting Johnson County. This one reportedly will finish by around 9am eastern (so about one hour from when I post this). And in those 200 precincts, Colyer needs to make up a 541-vote deficit. Good luck! UPDATE: JoCo has finished, and we’re at 191-vote lead for Kobach and almost-certainly headed to a recount, pending however many provisionals are out there.
The action that was
Let’s also not forget just how insane election night was. OH-12 saw at least four flips! As we got down to the wire I think we went from 70 to 30 at least twice in an hour. This chart shows some of the action but doesn’t really do it justice. Really just a classic election market. Difficult to play and time well, but if you lost money at any point the market was sure to give you a chance to make it up later (or misplay and lose even more…).
KS-Gov didn’t (and hasn’t) lacked for action either.
The rest of the week
- We’ve got a classic finish brewing in 538 ballot, with MC vs potentially YG/Ras.
- RDT closes this morning, and his Kobach mention market is also live.
- WHT is blessedly alive this week, with surprising strength keeping it going despite 0 scheduled events.
- And with one speech today and another tomorrow on SPACE FORCE, VPT has an outside chance of getting out of B1 (but probably not?).
Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein. You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives. While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.