jipkin’s PredictIt Preview – Week of 8/13/2018

What a fantastic week we’ve had in election markets – and they’re still going!  Let’s dive right into what we have ahead of ourselves:

MOAR Elections

Can the August 14 primaries top the August 7 primaries?  What about our intermezzo in Hawaii this Saturday night?  I’ll have my preview with results links for August 14 and Hawaii up a bit later, for now though let’s not lose sight of the potential profits in the leftovers from August 7.

OH-12Pretty much over.  There are almost 9k votes left, of which maybe 4-6k will be valid and counted, of which O’Connor would have to win an unreasonably large percentage to flip the results.  If there’s money left here, it’s in hoping that these additional votes end up pushing the margin up over 1% for Balderson.

KS-GovNow this is a fine situation.  About a 100-vote margin on over 200k votes.  Possibly around 10k votes remaining (!).  Accusations of illegal aliens voting.  Accusations of tampering with the vote count.  Counties discovering errors in their initial counts (three so far!).  A court battle in the making?  The first of the outstanding votes (absentee mail-in) will be trickling in throughout the day, so be ready for that.

TWEETS

(New to tweet markets?  Read my guides starting here.)

RDT – Need more than just a few random quotes about the Russia investigation sprinkled throughout the day (is he acting on advice of counsel after the ill-conceived Don Jr. meeting tweet?).  Need a rant.  Or a retweet spree.  Or something to get this market livened up.  Otherwise it’s just a boring slog to a B1 victory.

PT/WHT – The WHT energy was strong this past week, surprisingly getting us pst B1, though Scavino decided not to care.  We shall see how their pattern changes once the boss is back in town and events are ongoing.  Got a feeling it could be a fun week in these markets.

VPT – Kind of a normal week of travel and events and so on coming up for him.  Let’s hope we get some decent brackets and I suspect we’ll have some fun.

POLLS

(New to polling markets?  Read my guides starting here.)

A lot is due that ought to start showing up soon (the networks, CNN, Fox) along with a few usual suspects like Quinn and the weeklies.  538 TA should be fun (hopefully those YG dailies come in time this week…) while 538 ballot is hanging precariously on the edge of the bracket range and our friend Reuters might decide to condemn that market to an early demise (or at least an early spike) if it wants to.  This is also about the time we first get polls that might still be in the average at the end of the month, so don’t sleep on that one.  Oh and Rasmussen should be a fun one too.

THE REST

Manafort Charges – His first trial is due to wrap up soon (and could be over by the end of next week, depending on how long the defense takes).  From what I’ve heard the prosecution has laid out a fairly formidable case (I mean, the guy IS guilty) despite some chest-thumping memery from the judge.

Close polling in governor’s races – There’s a lot going on to affect the various governor’s races and the female governors market.  A Suffolk poll of the Maine race finds a dead heat.  Raimondo and Fung are also potentially tied in Rhode Island.  Lori Swanson finds herself in trouble in Minnesota with allegations of improper use of her AG office.  Whitmer defeats El-Sayed to bring herself closer to the win in Michigan, and Kelly wins the Kansas primary where the protracted battle on the Republican side (and potential Kobach victory) could increase her chances (though a run by a self-funded left-leaning independent might siphon away enough of her support to stymie her in the end).

One last thing – If you intend to play hard in November, this is probably now the time to start hoarding your pennies so that you have a nice solid bankroll.  And also probably the time to start staking out buy-and-hold positions in the big markets (House seats, Senate control, etc).

 


 

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s