Delaware – September 6 (Polls close at 8pm eastern)
DE R-Sen primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
DE D-Sen primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
In a similar vein as our MA race, the question here is whether Carper can survive a reasonably spirited attack from his left. My guess is that this is one of those markets that hangs out around 90c and 85c for Carper before quickly collapsing to 99c on the first results. But perhaps a surprise is in store.
Massachusetts – September 4 (Polls close at 8pm eastern)
MA-03 D Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
MA-07 D primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ / SoS)
Well we only have the one race for MA to focus on for this one! Will Ayanna Pressley succeed in ousting Capuano by running to his left? Polling is sparse and dated at this point and showed Capuano running fairly well ahead. The press really wants this to be another Ocasio-Cortez situation and Pressley’s market value is accordingly inflated. That said – it could obviously happen. I have no idea on the geography here (I should, given that the district is next door to mine). I guess that Pressley would be strong in Somerville/Cambridge? And Capuano stronger as you get into Dorchester and points further? Okay on some actual research it seems Capuano is former mayor of Somerville so he should be strong there. Pressley is strongest in Roxbury apparently. And the people that I know from the district voted 2-1 for Capuano if you like irrelevant information. This one might be over quickly, but fingers crossed for some real action.
Predicting Politics 