jipkin’s PredictIt Preview: Week of 9/10/2018

Another one in the books!  Have to be honest folks, I did not see the Op-Ed coming.  But at least we can gamble on who wrote it!  This is one of those markets where everything is going to be cheap (because it seems likely the NYT won’t confirm the identity of the author by the end date, and because it could be someone not on the list), but any random rumor or news article or Trump tweet could make something spike.  Will be fun to watch (and play) for sure.  (Btw, my official guess is Mnuchin, but I can see the NYT Op-Ed editor deciding that Jarrod Agen or someone else in Pence’s office is also worth publishing).

The End of Primary Season Draws Nigh

After Massachusetts (and a nice upset in MA-07) and Delaware this week, we’re getting down to it in terms of remaining primaries before the big show.  Next Tuesday is New Hampshire, Wednesday will be Rhode Island, and Thursday will be New York state and local (the federal primaries for New York were already held… ’tis a strange system).  I’ll have my usual preview up probably Monday or so for those, but we don’t have too many markets for these.  Basically in New York there’s the Cuomo-Nixon battle and then for the rest there are just the general election markets (New Hampshire | Rhode Island).  But who knows what new ones we get!  Hopefully some MoVs as well…

And Midterm Season Heats Up

Volume is ticking up across the board in the various midterm markets – we’re at the point now where individual polls (or shifts revealed in races) can start mattering.  At the very least, there are so many toss-up races (especially in the Senate) that prices are bound to slosh around a bit over the next two months.  The big markets are ripening nicely for the penny-flippers out there, with GOP Senate Seats the leading option.  How much longer can B60+ flirt with 10c+?  At some point – probably mid-October? – I expect prices in the House markets to start breaking one way or the other.  Bear in mind that a lot of the newer money that comes into PI down the late stretches wants Republicans to win, so a string of polls showing a tightening in the generic ballot could prompt some real movement (deserved or not).

New Markets

Who will win the MA-03 D Primary? – While you wait for primaries next week, have a look at this one.  I haven’t researched it yet (a lot of townships to go through to look up official results sources and so forth) but basically we’re staring at a possible recount to see if Trahan’s 50-vote lead can hold.

Which party will win in NY-22, IA-03, CA-10, and CA-45?  The California markets are duplicates of existing ones but hey! Now you can triple-max on election night if you want to.


(Tweet market guide: Part 1 | Part 2)

RDT – Well, well.  As I write this, B1 is reaching for the stars, giddily (or panicked-ly) reacting to his relative quiet this morning.  We will get Jobs Report tweets at some point of course.  And you have to imagine this Obama speech is going to set him off.  But then as usual this one comes down to the weekend.  Trump tweets a lot when he can find a nice rhythm and message, and events of the past two weeks keep disrupting him.  My hope is that he gets settled into it and we have a decent weekend and then a nice strong finish.  The alternative is a very annoying B1 market, but I guess sometimes those happen.

PT/WHT – Trump’s schedule is looking more and more regular these days.  I expect tweets pumping the economy later today and this weekend, the requisite tweets on 9/11, and then we have another half-day Thursday for rally travel (which matters for PT).  WHT looks quite swing-y, at least in the short term.  B7 is low enough there that it’s quite the plausible outcome as we sit here after another positive jobs report on Friday.  But the market will remember their relative low energy the past two weeks, and periods of silence should induce more acute panics.

VPT –  Will Pence take time out of his coup-plotting to tweet a few times?  His frequent political travel has really damped things down, sadly.  (And we’re getting a bit more of that next week).  On the other hand, 9/11 will bring tweets, we have a speech this afternoon, and the man doesn’t usually go two weeks in a row with only one set of public remarks, so let’s see what the schedule fairies bring.


(Polling market guide: Part 1 | Part 2)

Trump seems to be rebounding somewhat from his McCain dip, which has made for a delightfully swing-y 538 TA, a phenomenon that I imagine will persist through market close.  538 Ballot, sadly, might have been killed as Nate Silver et al. have decreed that their formula was causing the numbers to move around too much.  We shall see!  RCP Weekly was buckets of pain/fun this week, as The Intern induced some serious whiplash with their drop patterns.  Next week should be more straightforward.

As for actual polls, it feels like we got quite a few this week.  I expect Quinn might be done with national polling through the midterms (similar to Monmouth), which would rule out a regular contributor.  Other than that, I have my eye on CBS and CNN as live possibilities this week.


Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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