jipkin’s PredictIt Preview – Week of 10/15/2018

The Midterms

Midterm spreadsheet | Other midterm resources

Three weeks to go!  Polling last week was a bit all over the place.  Great polls for the GOP for the Senate, mixed polling for the House, and strong polling for Dems in the national generic ballot.  My sense is that at least transiently the race for the House has tightened – there’s some mean reversion out there as districts that shouldn’t have been competitive for the Dems indeed start breaking towards the GOP.  NYT’s MN-08 poll for instance shows an eye-popping 16-point swing from early September in favor of the GOP.  (Their PA-01 poll is surprisingly strong for the Dems, though.)  CO-06 and VA-10 – at least so far – look like they’ve tightened as well, suggesting some GOP movement.

Is it all post-Kavanaugh bump?  October mean-reversion?  We’ll see how the polls go this week. Random thought: how much do the markets and midterm forecasts depend on Upshot/Siena polls?  Their breadth and frequency of polling makes them dominant source of new data each week, so kind of interesting to think about what might happen if their turnout models are just a little bit off in one direction or another.

Polling Markets

538 TA | 538 Ballot | RCP Weekly | RCP Monthly | Ras

538 TA, resolving today, is down to when and whether several YGs come out, what Gallup serves up, and maybe a few surprise polls.  Not much else to do today so I’ll be there.  As for polling in general, I half-expect a national Q, maybe a national Marist, and tons of House CDs courtesy of our friends at The Upshot.  Sidenote: last week we had great volume across the board in polling markets (and tweet markets) as Kavanaugh money spilled out.  Fingers crossed that this continues…

Tweets

RDT | PT | WHT | VPT

We’re in a classic RDT spot right now – the market wants B7.  It needs B7.  But I don’t know if it’s going to get it.  He’s obviously inhibited somewhat from shitposting too hard today with the hurricane visit – though staff tweets ought to make up for that.  The issue really is that he continues to be in a great mood.  He’s talking freely to the press multiple times a day, he’s giving big mainstream media interviews, he’s calling into Fox and Friends, he’s doing four rallies a week.  Mueller isn’t going to do anything in October so Trump is free to play.  That said, it’s not like there’s nothing out there for him to rant about.  I half-expect him to fire off a Pocahontas tweet this evening on the flight back home from Florida, given that she’s in the news cycle today.

The rest of the markets I tentatively expect to have light finishes.  Pence will be making his own trip down South to somberly gaze at hurricane damage and shake the hands of first responders (and also to finally get that Brian Kemp fundraiser in…), which will be reasonably tweetsy.  (And Trump’s visit today should generate plenty of material for WHT – so there will be tweets short term).  Beyond that, I don’t see a ton of official business or agenda items on the administration’s plate as the POTUS and VP are out there mainly doing campaign activity.

ICYMI

I’ve done a few little analysis pieces on some of the lesser-trafficked midterm markets.  See here for my latest take on how many women win their races this November, and here for what I think about turnover in the House.

 

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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