jipkin’s PredictIt Preview – week of 11/12/2018

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Midterms Mayhem

How’s everybody feeling?  Did we all make riches upon riches last week?  Congratulations to those that did and to those that didn’t, it’s a new week and it’s time to recoup!  Personally I’m rather “meh”.  Made money of course (technically my best week ever on PredictIt) but not nearly as much as I should have given that I saw several very profitable spots as they happened but was (as usual) unable to pull the trigger.  My big missed opportunities of the night:

  • AZSEN (should have double-maxed in single digits, even though McSally was still favored at the time it was hugely +EV [expected value])
  • Should also have maxed Seat Flips and GOPSEN on the AZSEN flip
  • Should have maxed Tester when his price panicked into the 50s (and accordingly in GOPSEN; Seat Flips).
  • Should have gone harder in WIGOV, where it was obvious the missing batch of votes would flip the race.
  • Should have gone harder in CTGOV, where it was obvious the vote out would flip the market.
  • Should have gone harder in GA06 because all the results sites were behind the Secretary of State which was showing a virtually tied race despite the market being 70/30 for Handel.
  • Should have fished for shares at 5-10c instead of 1-3c in the California markets.  I did at least hold my CA-45 Dem shares instead of dumping them.
  • Plenty of other little subpar decisions.

Midterm Mop-up

But all of that is (mostly) behind us.  This week we continue with mop-up in the midterms, where most of the action so far has been in AZSEN (all but over) and AZSEN MoV (getting to be over – needs the fabled McSally-favored buckets of votes in Maricopa to finally show up to avoid getting to 1.8% or more).  But it’s also worth keeping your eye this week on results reported out of UT04, NY22, TX23, the Californias (CA39 and CA45 especially), and maybe even GA07.  Flips are still technically possible in all of these.  In principle they can affect DEMHOUSE, but that one seems all but over.

I also hear that we might get a House popular vote market today or this week, which will be very interesting to play, and if you really need a new election there’s always the Espy v. Hyde-Smith run-off, which has become a touch spicier after Senator Hyde-Smith joked about attending a public hanging (apparently that’s a figure of speech???).

Tweets

(New to tweet markets?  Check out my guides starting here.)

RDT | PT | VPT | WHT

Man it feels weird to be thinking about tweets again.  Donny’s got a lot of work to do to escape B1 and while I’m praying he finds two retweet sprees in him (of random stuff in his feed, maybe?) I also don’t really see it.  Over in Mikey land (which happens to be Asia this week), people are bullish his spate of meetings with foreign leaders will produce a big week.  I don’t disagree, but I’d also like to see him hit up plenty of retweets as well just to ensure that he gets there.

Finally WHT/PT are in strange spots where PT bettors think we’re going high and WHT bettors think we’re going low (odd given their correlation).  Personally I think WHT has been lulled into a sense of complacency by how slow the pre-election weeks were and B1 might get punished there.  Or my handful of NO shares gets cucked.  I haven’t looked up what’s on the agenda anyway so it might just be a quiet week after all.

Polls

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538 TA | RCP TA | Ras | RCP EoM TA

RIP generic ballot markets.  Also are we even going to get any polls?  Seems like it will just be the usual weeklies and not much else.  Maybe the biggest question of them all: does RCP update their average?  They haven’t touched it since Tuesday, much to the chagrin of last week’s market.  Could produce quite the memes if nothing happens this week too…   Okay nevermind literally as I finished the “…” there we got the update.  Back to business as usual.

 

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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