August 11 & 14 Primaries Preview

UPDATE: Hawaii is over, so I’ve moved their links to the bottom so we can focus just on the August 14 primary markets.  I’ve also reorganized things by poll-closing time and added a few more new markets of note to each section.

Vermont – Polls Close August 14, 7:00 PM Eastern

VT D-Gov Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

Here the story is whether Hallquist will complete the first step on the journey to becoming the nation’s first transgender governor.  I don’t know what her chances would be against Scott in the fall, but she does at least seem to have the media buzz heading into this primary.

Connecticut – Polls Close August 14, 8:00 PM Eastern

CT R-Sen Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

CT R-Gov Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

CT-05 D Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

Who wants to lose to Chris Murphy?  The Corey fellow has been endorsed by the CT GOP.  Both like Trump.  Meh.

UPDATE: With new markets come new possibilities.  The CT GOP primary is apparently all over the place, with Boughton holding onto a 10-point lead (albeit with only 30ish%) in this multi-way race.  I’m completely in the dark on Glassman v Hayes in CT-05.  Both look like strong candidates on paper?  Maybe I’ll toss a buck at the National Teacher of the Year or something.

Minnesota – Polls Close August 14, 9:00 PM Eastern

MN D-Gov Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

MN R-Gov Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

MN-05 D Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

MN-08 D Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

MN D-Sen Special Primary MoV (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

MN R-Gov Primary MoV (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

MN D AG Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

The main event here is the Democratic primary for governor.  Lori Swanson had been rising in the polls, but she’s been kneecapped by some light scandal involving directing employees in her AG’s office to engage in campaign work (allegedly).  That and her Lt. Gov partner apparently mishandled some Me-Too situation.  That said, polling has been relatively sparse, so she could still pull off an upset vs market favorite Tim Walz.  Elsewhere, the rising star Ilhan Omar looks to take Keith Ellison’s seat in MN-05 while the endorsement of vacating Congressman Rick Nolan has placed Joe Radinovich in the lead for the Democratic nod for the 8th district.

UPDATE: the addition of the MN AG primary means we have another interesting race on our hands.  Conventional wisdom would favor Ellison here – except we have a late-breaking (as yet unsubstantiated) allegation of domestic violence against him.  Absentee ballots already cast can’t be changed, but perhaps the election day vote swings against him?

Wisconsin – Polls Close August 14, 9:00 PM Eastern

WI R-Sen Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS*)

WI-01 D Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS*)

Vukmir!  Will Breitbart et al. take her down?  Or will the Ryan-backed establishment candidate crush their hopes and dreams?  Polls are kind of all over the place here, but it’s worth noting that Nicholson is being supported on the airwaves by a super PAC spending by billionaire Richard Uihlein.  On the other hand, there’s also apparently footage of him being pro-choice in public (yikes! The guy used to be president of the college Dems, then underwent a conversion on the battlefield in Iraq).  On the other other hand, Leah Vukmir claimed to drive a Ford when instead she drives a Toyota (or something).  Should be a fun one with some interesting geographical quirks: in the MU Law poll, Nicholson is strongest in Madison and the rurals, while running evenish with Vukmir in Milwaukee city and Green Bay.  Vukmir leads in the the suburbs of Milwaukee.  If you’re looking for a WI lotto ticket, Evers is priced quite highly in the D-nom fight for governor despite being out-polled by “don’t know”.  That said, all those don’t-knows would have to coalesce magically against him for him to lose it (which is why it’s a lotto).

** “Wisconsin does not have a statewide Election Night reporting system, but unofficial results are available county-by-county and from news media websites. The deadline for WEC to certify official results is August 29, after which they will be published on this website.”

 

Hawaii – Polls Close(d) August 11, 12:00 AM Eastern

HI D-Gov Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

HI-01 D Primary (Ballotpedia | NYT / DDHQ/Vox / SoS)

Will David Ige’s mishandling of the false ballistic missile alarm doom him vs the strong challenge of HI-01 Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa?  Or has his more competent handling of Pele’s latest mischief earned back voters’ trust?  Will voters care about the kind of sketchy real estate deals Hanabusa has been involved in?  Polling is sparse and tends to favor Ige (hence his pricing).  Both have power bases on Oahu (which is where all the vote is in HI anyway).  If Hanabusa loses, it rules out a sure thing in the female governor’s market.  Her Congressional seat (which she’s vacating to run for Governor) is also up for grabs, with Ed Case thought to lead the field (and his lead in the market reflects his lead in the polling).  Surprises are possible!  But it’s going to be late late at night for most of the US when these results come, so if you have a big position be prepared to ride it out since I have a feeling there’s not going to be as many folks around to trade with you.

UPDATE: Ige and Case both won, as expected.

 


 

Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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