jipkin’s PredictIt Preview – Week of 8/20/2018

When will Manafort be convicted?  Or will he get off?

The jury in his EDVA trial is currently ensconced in day two of deliberations, and may return a verdict as I write this – or by the end of the day.  But surely by the end of next week, right?  If you don’t have a position and want one, now is the time to take it in both markets: Will he be convicted?  How many charges will he be convicted of?  And to top it off, what do you make of Trump’s “Manafort is a good man” shtick?  Will he pardon him, if convicted?

Get oriented for the midterms

ICYMI, I have put together a pretty neato spreadsheet that compares the odds various experts, modelers, and prediction markets compute for the midterms.  It has overall odds as well as tabs for odds by individual House, Senate, and governor race.  If there’s a PredictIt market for something, you can click the item and visit that market and place a bet if you’d like.  The spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AEiZdS_yGvwIJhE4s8sn9pIISkdxmzaJEzhzI104Kow/edit?usp=sharing

I also wrote a quick post describing it in more detail, along with some of the interesting findings like these in the California races:

20180816_California.png

Tweets

(New to tweet markets?  Check out my guide starting here.)

RDT – He’s back!  What a great finish we had to the market this week – as soon as he returned from Bedminster it was FoxNews time all the time and he let it loose.  He’s maintained a strong enough pace early this week to get B7’s hopes up, placing us in a pretty standard make-or-break weekend spot.  We do have fewer Tuesday primaries to congratulate winners of this week (watch to see if he says anything about Foster Friess, whom his son endorsed), but there are plenty of races coming up in Florida and Arizona that he might want to make endorsements or GOTV exhortations for.

PT – Sadly I must decouple Scavino’s Funhouse of Pain from WHT in my preview this week.  Cuz he ain’t retweeting those WHT cucks any more.  Except when he does.  Expect volume to be low in this one.

VPT – Well, well.  As I write he’s trying to make things interesting again.  But fun finishes aside, the live tweets seem to have disappeared again.  On the other hand, SPAAAAAACE.  We shall see what the NASA speech does but I am already setting myself up to be disappointed by low energy from him outside of that.

WHT – It seems they are more productive when the boss isn’t around to set everything on fire.  That said, events will start coming back onto Trump’s schedule so I don’t think it’s going to be excruciatingly slow.  B1 probably has some weekend potential but this seems like a normal mid-range week.

Polls

(New to polling markets?  Check out my guides starting here.)

Monmouth, the networks, Fox, etc.  I expect a normal week, with sadly 538 ballot being (again) a little too close to the edge for my comfort.  But then again, this is the third time this has happened and the past two times it eventually came back to the middle of the market’s range.  538 TA is in a normal spot with the exception of Reuters behaving weirdly.  And we’re starting to get down to it for the end-of-month RCP market, with new polls this week probably going to be in the average used for resolution (while older polls start dropping off).

Wyoming and Alaska

We have a couple markets so far for these two states!  Well let’s see what happens, you never know when a fun MoV might pop up.  But mainly I expect this will be the week to start digging into the Florida and Arizona early vote data and preparing for those big primaries.

Updates to Female Governors Odds

After the primaries in the past two weeks, a little bit has shaken out to determine how many women will hold governor’s offices in 2019.  My summary is below; click this post to read more.

  • (1) Very likely: Ivey
  • (1) Likely, but not guaranteed: Lujan Grisham
  • (5) More likely than not, but watch out: Brown, Noem, Raimondo, Mills, Whitmer
  • (4) Reasonable shot: Graham, Abrams, Reynolds, Kelly (KS)
  • (3) Stretches: Kelly (NH), Jordan, Hallquist

The OH-12 Race Nears Its Conclusion

Let’s see what shakes out as counties begin their final canvassing next week.  Could there be some fun times ahead in the MoV market?

 


Disclaimer: I probably have positions or intend to take positions in just about all the markets I discuss herein.  You should always do your own research prior to making any investment decision. You should consider my advice and knowledge I share to be fundamentally biased in its presentation and selection by my own financial incentives.  While I do not knowingly lie I certainly do knowingly omit information that I think gives me an edge.

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